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The Turkish lira swings wildly as Erdogan’s big gamble continues

Turkey’s experiment in cutting interest rates to fight inflation has sent its currency crashing to record lows this year. Now, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to prop up the lira with a raft of new unorthodox economic measures.

Erdogan said the government would try to protect Turkish savers worried about the tumbling value of their nest eggs by compensating them for the impact of the depreciation of the lira on their deposits.
The lira initially shot higher in response, and at one hoka shoes for women point on Monday had gained more than 20% against the dollar. But by Tuesday it was falling again, dropping more than 6%.
Analysts warned the new policy could end up costing the Turkish government a huge amount of money and Atilla Yesilada, a Turkish economist and country analyst for GlobalSource Partners, took a swipe at the decision.
“Please do not ask me to prove the earth IS NOT flat everyday,” he tweeted.
Why is the lira so unstable?
The Turkish president’s tendency to intervene in setting monetary policy, firing central bankers and finance ministers who don’t agree with his rate-cutting gamble, has undermined the lira. He frames Turkey’s economic woes as a result of foreign intervention and a struggle for more financial independence for the country.
Despite the gains on Monday, the lira has still lost about 40% of its value against the dollar so far this year.
On Sunday, Erdogan shrugged off criticism of his economic policy in a speech citing Islamic teachings on interest rates. His remarks only served to push the lira even lower.
“What do they say? They say I am lowering interest rates. They should expect nothing else from me. As a Muslim, whatever Islamic teachings require, that is what I will do. That is what I will continue to do. The religious command is clear,” he said.
Inflation in Turkey hit an annual rate of 21% in November, and economists think it could go even higher, with a rate of up to 30% possible over the next six to nine months.
Despite this, Turkey’s central bank cut interest rates for a fourth month in a row last week. Central banks typically raise interest rates when inflation is soaring to stop the economy from overheating.
The current central bank governor, Sahap Kavcioglu, took over in March 2021 after predecessor Naci Agbal was fired by Erdogan two days after hiking rates.
Why it matters
Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, warned that linking bank deposits to the currency rate could transfer risks in the foreign exchange system to the pubic sector, with the country’s treasury “on the line for a large bill.”
Mass compensation paid out to Turkish savers would cause the budget deficit to widen.
“That might not be a problem now given that Turkey’s public finances are relatively strong — public debt is low at around 40% of GDP — but it would cause hoka shoes the public debt dynamics to worsen,” he said.
The new instrument will apply to personal deposit accounts with fixed terms of between 3 and 12 months, the Turkish finance ministry said in a statement.
Soaring inflation is already piling on the pain for consumers, and making it difficult for businesses to plan ahead.
Erdogan announced a nearly 50% hike in the country’s minimum wage on Thursday, hoping it would provide relief to suffering workers.
“With this increase, I believe we have shown our determination not to allow workers to be crushed under the weight of increasing prices,” the president said at a press conference.
The move may give Erdogan a political boost. But higher wages are a known contributor to inflation, and they could make an already dire situation worse.
The Turkish Business Association recently criticized government economic policy for its disruptive impact “not only for the business world, but also for all our citizens.”
“In the long term, the risk of causing much larger structural problems has increased. Even our exporters, who are expected to benefit the most, are suffering from this environment,” it said in a statement on Saturday.
It said that the country must return to “generally accepted principles of economics within the framework of free markets.”
But a pro-Erdogan business group said that it supported the president’s low interest rate policy. The Independent Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association said in a statement it believed it “will increase our export and employment-oriented gains many times over.”

After a Firefighter’s Death, His Son Gets a Truck Birthday Parade

Matt Boney said a fire chief had grabbed him on Tuesday night as they prepared to pull the body of their fallen comrade, Jared Lloyd, from the rubble of an assisted living center in Rockland County, New York, where Lloyd had died trying to rescue residents from a fire hours earlier.

The chief, he said, told him that one of Lloyd’s two sons, Logan, was turning 6 on Wednesday — in just a few hours — and had asked his mother if a fire truck could come to his house for his birthday.

“And that’s how this all started,” said the chief, Ken Conjura of the Spring Valley Fire Department, who is Logan’s stepfather.

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Boney, a firefighter in Rockland County, started making calls at around noon Wednesday but didn’t expect what happened next. Before long, he said, calls started pouring in from firefighters, police officers and contractors throughout the region.

Boney said he had soon realized that he was going to need a bigger staging area for the vehicles, and he directed everyone to meet in a giant parking lot outside a Pfizer office in Pearl River, New York.

More than 200 vehicles — fire trucks, police cars, ambulances, dump trucks and tow trucks — streamed into the lot and lined up in more than a dozen orderly rows.

“We knew it was going to be big, but we didn’t know it was going to be that big,” Boney said. “We were all in awe, like: ‘Oh my God. This is really happening.’”

The procession, reported by Lohud.com, had been organized as Rockland County firefighters were still grieving the loss of Lloyd, 35, an avid golfer, president of the firefighters’ softball league, a die-hard New York Mets fan and father to two boys, Logan and Darius, 4, his colleagues said.

Lloyd, who had been a Rockland County firefighter for more than 15 years, radioed a call for help from inside the Evergreen Court Home for Adults in Spring Valley, New York, before the building collapsed on Tuesday, authorities said.

“He was that guy that you could call and he would be here in a minute,” Conjura said. “He was that guy that couldn’t leave because he was afraid to miss something. He was that guy you want to have on your team. He’s going to be a big, big, tremendous loss to this department.”

Logan, who was still absorbing his father’s death, didn’t know if any fire truck was coming for his birthday, Conjura said. But as the huge procession of vehicles left the lot and headed to the boy’s street, Conjura told Logan to come outside.

It was gray and rainy, and the sound of the sirens came first.

Then the vehicles arrived, a long, snaking river of flashing red, white and blue lights through the streets of Nanuet.

The vehicles seemed to stretch for miles — fire engines from Monsey, police cars from Orangetown, ambulances from Stony Point, dump trucks from MCM Paving & Excavation from West Haverstraw — and so many more from so many places.

Logan watched as the vehicles rolled by his house for more than 40 minutes, stopping occasionally so firefighters could hand him presents.

“It was unbelievable,” Conjura said. “He was super excited. He was very happy.”

On a day of mourning and loss, the procession, Conjura said, was about answering a call to service.

“It just speaks about firefighters — even in their darkest moments, they shine,” he said. “They get together and make things happen. That’s what the volunteer fire service is all about: picking each other up.”

US Capitol police warn of possible militia plot to breach Congress

Members of the National Guard stand at the East Front of the US Capitol in Washington, DC
image captionThe US Capitol Police said “we are taking the intelligence seriously”

Security has been ramped up at the US Capitol in response to “a possible plot to breach” the building.

The move was prompted by intelligence that an unnamed militia group planned the attack for 4 March – the day US presidents used to be inaugurated.

The House of Representatives cancelled Thursday’s session, but the Senate will continue with its agenda.

The threat comes two months after the deadly attack on the building by a mob loyal to former President Donald Trump.

They breached the Capitol building in January while lawmakers were inside moving to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s election victory. Mr Trump still refuses to admit losing the election.

The riot saw five people including a police officer killed and shook the foundations of American democracy. The head of the Capitol police force later resigned.

Supporters of an unfounded conspiracy theory believe Mr Trump will return to the White House on 4 March.

  • Why are QAnon believers obsessed with 4 March?
  • Capitol rioters ‘came prepared for war’

What does the intelligence say?

“As of late February, an unidentified group of militia violent extremists discussed plans to take control of the US Capitol and remove Democratic lawmakers on or about 4 March and discussed aspirational plans to persuade thousands to travel to Washington, DC, to participate,” a new intelligence bulletin issued by the FBI and Department of Homeland Security says.

Following that assessment, the US Capitol Police referred in a statement to “a possible plot to breach the Capitol by an identified militia group on Thursday, March 4”.

“We have already made significant security upgrades to include establishing a physical structure and increasing manpower to ensure the protection of Congress, the public and our police officers.

“Due to the sensitive nature of this information, we cannot provide additional details at this time.”

Why is Thursday significant?

Supporters of an extremist conspiracy theory known as QAnon falsely believe Thursday will mark Mr Trump’s return to the White House for a second term.

They have latched onto this date because before the 20th amendment of the US Constitution – adopted in 1933 – moved the swearing-in dates of the president and Congress to January, American leaders took office on 4 March.

  • What is QAnon and where did it come from?

QAnon is a wide-ranging and completely unfounded theory which says that President Trump is waging a secret war against elite Satan-worshipping paedophiles in government, business and the media.

Security services were aware of online QAnon discussions surrounding 4 March, but did not “have any indication of violence or a specific, credible plot at this time”, an FBI official had told The Washington Post last week.

Capitol riot aftermath

The US justice department has charged more than 300 people with participation in the 6 January attack. Those arrested include members of the right-wing militia groups the Oath Keepers and the Three Percenters.

Democrats said the attack amounted to an insurrection and the House voted to impeach Mr Trump for allegedly inciting the mob. The former president – the first in US history to be impeached twice – was later acquitted in the upper chamber, the Senate, with many Republican senators sticking by him.

In late February Acting Capitol Police Chief Yogananda Pittman told Congress that the Trump supporters behind the January attack want to “blow up” the Capitol and kill lawmakers.

Leon Panetta, a former US Defence Secretary and CIA chief, told the BBC that police would take no chances following January’s attack.

  • ‘Like a medieval battle’: The riots frontline

“We have got to have constant intelligence on domestic terrorists, have to track their possible efforts to again repeat what happened on January sixth and I think that’s what you’re seeing now, is an abundance of caution to make sure that we are properly prepared to react, if in fact any group attempts any kind of armed attack again on the United States Capitol,” he said.

U.S. extreme cold storm triggered “Texas crisis” people lined up to buy food in the cold wind

Biden approves Texas into a “major disaster state”

On February 20, local time, the White House issued a statement that US President Biden has approved Texas to enter a “major disaster state” and ordered the federal government to provide assistance to support Texas’ recovery work since the winter storm on February 11. Areas approved to enter a “major disaster state” will receive assistance from the US federal government, and local governments can exercise emergency powers to maintain lives, property, and public health after a disaster.

The statement mentioned that the current assistance includes money for building temporary houses and providing house repairs, low-cost loans to make up for uninsured building losses, and other recovery plans to help individuals and business owners. The statement also stated that if other states make a request and pass the further damage assessment, there may be other declarations of disaster status.

More than 15 million people have no water, about 85,000 residents still have no electricity

Winter storms have been raging in Texas for many days. According to local media reports, the temperature in Texas will gradually rise on the 20th local time and in the next few days. However, at present, more than 15.1 million people in Texas still face water supply interruption, and many people have frozen water pipes in their homes. CNN reported that as of the morning of the 20th local time, about 85,000 residents in Texas still had power outages. In some areas, many residents’ homes have been without electricity for many days.

Republicans Unswayed By Evidence Trump ‘Incited’ Mob Against U.S. Capitol

WASHINGTON ― Despite Democratic impeachment managers laying out a methodical case on Wednesday, Senate Republicans seem intent as ever on acquitting Donald Trump over his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

House Democrats spent hours Wednesday showing how Trump, in their words, summoned, assembled and incited the mob to storm the Capitol. The former president was “no innocent bystander,” lead impeachment manager Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said, adding that he “surrendered his role as commander in chief and became the inciter in chief of a dangerous insurrection.”

“He told them to ‘fight like hell’ and they brought us hell that day,” Raskin said.

The evidence included dozens of Trump tweets and statements prior to the attack ― some casting doubt on the 2020 presidential election results, some telling supporters to come to Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6 and “fight like hell” to stop the Electoral College certification. And Democratic impeachment managers presented statements from the rioters themselves that, in the words of Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.), showed they were “following the president’s orders.”

But none of that seemed to matter to GOP senators. Republicans spent breaks in between the presentations telling reporters that they were all ready to vote.

“I don’t think there’s anything that’s been said by either side that has changed any votes,” Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) told HuffPost at one point Wednesday afternoon. “There’s nothing that I have heard during this process that I hadn’t already heard.”

When HuffPost pressed Inhofe if there was anything that could change his mind, he said no.

“Not from anything that I have seen so far, and I can’t imagine what else is out there,” Inhofe said.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who led the effort to contest the 2020 election in Congress, said he believed that holding a trial for a former president is unconstitutional ― a dubious view the Senate rejected in a bipartisan vote on Tuesday ― and that no evidence would convince him of Trump’s guilt.

“There’s nothing new here, for me, at the end of the day,” Hawley said. “I think that we don’t have jurisdiction as a court in order to pursue this, so nothing that I’ve seen changes my view on that, and if you don’t have jurisdiction, that’s just the end of the call.”

Hawley spent much of the day alone in the public gallery above the Senate floor, which officials had made available to senators to accommodate for social distancing and reading documents while Democrats presented their case. While Hawley didn’t seem to be paying attention to the floor proceedings, he did note that his view from the gallery afforded him the opportunity to watch senator reactions from above.

“It’s interesting to sort of see people taking notes or not,” Hawley said.

To Hawley’s point, a number of Democrats spent Wednesday taking notes and paying close attention to the presentation, while most Republicans seemed uninterested and unengaged, sitting back in their seats or reading unrelated documents.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) walks through the Senate subway on his way to the second day of former President Donald Trump's second impeachment trial at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 10. (Photo: Drew Angerer via Getty Images)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) walks through the Senate subway on his way to the second day of former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 10. (Photo: Drew Angerer via Getty Images)

Republicans seem resolute on acquitting Trump. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told reporters Wednesday that he had talked to Trump the previous night, and he promised the former president that Republicans wouldn’t convict.

“The case is over,” Graham told Trump.

Republicans have a long history of excusing Trump’s behavior. Whether it’s “Access Hollywood” tapes where Trump says he can grab women by their genitals with impunity, or the near-daily tweets and acts of embarrassment, or a phone call where Trump pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to open an investigation into a political rival, Republican senators have stood by Trump. And even before this trial officially started, 44 of 50 GOP Senators said the trial couldn’t even be held, despite clear precedent and a strong case from Democrats.

In fact, the entire trial seems to be a fait accompli.

Sen. Ron Johson (R-Wis.) used his time with the press Wednesday not addressing the facts of the case, but by saying he wished the proceedings would wrap up quickly.

Under Senate rules, both the House impeachment managers and Trump’s defense team are allotted eight hours for opening arguments. The former president’s attorneys will begin their presentation on Thursday, but they may decide not to use all their time.

“You can do it in a couple hours and be done with this. But that’s not what’s going to happen unfortunately,” Johnson said. “This is pretty obvious this is a political exercise.”

Only six Republican senators have expressed some level of openness to the case against Trump, including Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who surprised observers by voting with Democrats to affirm the constitutionality of the impeachment trial on Tuesday. But the Louisiana Republican, who elicited a rebuke from his state Republican Party, said his vote to let the trial proceed was not indicative of his stance on conviction.

“This does not predict my vote or anything else,” Cassidy said. “It does predict that I will listen to these arguments as I did to the arguments yesterday, with an open mind.”

That would seem to be a minority view among Republicans.

As Inhofe told HuffPost Wednesday, “we come in with our natural biases.”

Covid: First round of US vaccinations to begin on Monday

The US public will start receiving the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine from Monday after it was authorised for emergency use, officials say.

The first three million doses of the vaccine would be shipped “across all states” this weekend, said Gen Gustave Perna, who is overseeing distribution.

The vaccine offers up to 95% protection against Covid-19 and was deemed safe by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

On Saturday, the US recorded a daily toll of 3,309 Covid-related deaths.

The figure, reported on the Johns Hopkins University website, is the highest total in a single day anywhere in the world.

media captionGen Gustave Perna: “I am absolutely 100 per cent confident that we are going to distribute safely this precious commodity”

Coronavirus deaths have been rising sharply since November in the US.

Authorising the emergency use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine on Friday, the FDA – which had come under intense pressure from the Trump administration to do so – said the move was a “significant milestone” in the pandemic.

A mass inoculation drive using doses of the same vaccine has already begun in the UK.

During a news conference on Saturday, Gen Perna – speaking for the US government’s vaccination campaign Operation Warp Speed – said doses of the vaccine would be packed into shipping containers for transportation “within the next 24 hours”.

“Expect 145 sites across the states to receive the vaccine on Monday, another 425 sites on Tuesday, and the final 66 sites on Wednesday,” he said, adding that next week’s distribution would complete the initial delivery of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and cover about three million people.

Gen Perna told reporters he was “100% confident” that the doses “needed to defeat the enemy Covid” would be transported safely.

He warned, however, that while it had been a week of progress, “we are not done until every American has access to a vaccine”.

Chart showing the number of Covid-19 deaths in the US since the start of the pandemic

The Pfizer vaccine has already received regulatory approval in the UK, Canada, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Like those countries, US health authorities are expected to prioritise health workers and care home residents for the first doses.

More Americans outside the highest-priority groups are likely to be able to get the vaccine in January, with general availability expected by April.

What has the FDA said about the vaccine?

“The FDA’s authorisation for emergency use of the first Covid-19 vaccine is a significant milestone in battling this devastating pandemic that has affected so many families in the United States and around the world,” the head of the agency, Stephen Hahn, said.

He said the authorisation came after “an open and transparent review process” that ensured the vaccine met the “FDA’s rigorous, scientific standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality”.

FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn addresses the media during a press conference at the White House
image captionThe FDA’s Stephen Hahn said he was ready to be vaccinated (file photo)

On Thursday, medical experts advising the FDA recommended the emergency-use authorisation. A 23-member panel concluded the vaccine’s benefits outweighed its risks.

Emergency use, the FDA said, was not the same as full approval, which would require Pfizer to file a separate application to secure.

US media reported that Mr Hahn had earlier been told to approve the vaccine for emergency use by Friday or quit.

Mr Hahn, however, said the reports were “untrue” and stressed that the agency had not compromised safety in its testing.

How does the vaccine work?

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was the first coronavirus jab to show promising results in the latter stages of its testing process.

It is a new type called an mRNA vaccine that uses a tiny fragment of genetic code from the pandemic virus to teach the body how to fight Covid-19 and build immunity.

“The vaccine contains a small piece of the [Covid-19] virus’s mRNA that instructs cells in the body to make the virus’s distinctive ‘spike’ protein,” the FDA said.

media captionHow will the new Pfizer vaccine work?

“When a person receives this vaccine, their body produces copies of the spike protein, which does not cause disease, but triggers the immune system to learn to react defensively, producing an immune response against [Covid-19].”

The vaccine is given as two injections, 21 days apart, with the second dose being a booster. Immunity begins to kick in after the first dose but reaches its full effect seven days after the second dose.

The vaccine must be stored at ultra-low temperatures, which makes distribution difficult. Special shipping containers that use dry ice will be used to transport frozen vials direct to the point of vaccination, Pfizer says.

The pharmaceutical company has agreed a deal to supply the US with 100 million doses of the vaccine by March.

An additional 200 million doses of a second vaccine, developed by Moderna and the National Institutes of Health, will be provided by June. However this vaccine is still seeking approval in the US.

The US media “officially announced” Biden’s election and the media “wrongly judged” what to do?

After the media announces the results, the state votes may still be disputed. The real “official announcement” will have to wait until January 6 next year before it is officially announced by the Congress.

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Beijing News reporter Xie Lian Trainee reporter Luan Ruoxi Editor Bai Shuang Proofreader Li Ming

On November 7, local time, the Associated Press, Fox News, The New York Times, CNN, NBC and other US media announced that the Democratic presidential candidate Biden has won more than 270 electoral votes and won the 2020 presidential election. . After that, the media referred to Biden as the “President-elect” (President-elect), and Biden also changed his Twitter certification to “President-elect.”

In addition, multinational leaders around the world issued a statement congratulating Biden and his vice president partner Harris on winning the election. Biden then delivered a national speech in Delaware, saying that the American people gave him a “complete and convincing victory.”

▲Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his wife hug on the speech stage in Wilmington, Delaware. Associated Press screenshot

However, Trump, the current president and Republican presidential candidate, issued a statement that refused to recognize this result, saying that “the president is determined by legitimate votes, not the news media.”

In fact, as of November 8, Beijing time, many states in the United States are still counting votes, and the counting rate of some key swing states is only about 90%. Why can media organizations predict the results of the general election in advance? How does the media agency make a decision? Is their announcement considered an “official announcement”?


How does the media determine the outcome?

In fact, the U.S. elections are counted by the states themselves, and there is no unified organization to summarize the election results. It is precisely because the public pays close attention to the general election information that most media organizations will collect state vote count data in real time, follow up the live vote count situation on their respective websites, and make decisions about state ownership based on the data prediction results.

On November 7, local time, when the mainstream media judged that Biden was elected president, the major media judged that Biden had received very different electoral votes. Fox News said that Biden received 290 electoral votes; The New York Times and The Washington Post said that Biden received 279 votes. Why are there discrepancies in the data of various media? How do the various media determine whether the states are “blue” or “red”?

▲The voting result determined by Fox News. Screenshot of Fox website

▲The ballot result judged by The New York Times. Screenshot of the New York Times website

In fact, in each year’s general election, the statistical votes given by major media organizations vary. This is because the media in the United States have different databases. The media first collect real-time polls, total votes, post-voting polls and other data from polling stations in various states, and then use different models to predict uncalculated votes. It is inferred from the prediction whether the behind candidates can win the majority with the uncounted votes. Once it is judged that the lagging candidate is unable to recover, even if the state’s vote count has not ended, the media will immediately predict the state’s ownership.

In the 2020 presidential election, CNN, NBC, ABC, and CBS adopted the National Election Reporting Corps (multiple American media). The formed coalition provides data from post-voting polls for the U.S. election, while Fox News uses data from the Associated Press. The Associated Press previously stated that in order to ensure the accuracy of the published data, in the 2020 presidential election, it launched an information collection network composed of more than 4,000 local special reporters from 50 states to collect data from county to county. .

Various media organizations said they made their judgments based on rigorous data. John Lapinski, director of the NBC News election team, said, “NBC will only declare a candidate to win if it is at least 99.5% convinced. If the data is too close, we will not easily draw conclusions.” Fox News Said that in order to obtain all the data covering voters who voted in advance, voters who voted on election day, and voters who mailed ballots, they conducted telephone and online voting a few days before the election. Politico said that it will only announce the winner if the Associated Press or the three major television stations (ABC, CBS, NBC) have announced the winner.

Among many media organizations, the Associated Press’s statistical results are considered more authoritative and credible. The Associated Press has a history of counting votes for more than 170 years. In the 2016 presidential election, the Associated Press published an accuracy rate of 99.8% for all election results, and an accuracy rate of 100% for the president and Congress. That year was also the first announcement by the Associated Press that Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States.


Is there any case of wrong judgment in the media?

In order to gain the upper hand, most media organizations will determine the results in advance before all the results of the counting are calculated. Even though various media emphasized that they were cautious in making judgments, they still cannot avoid “wrong judgments”.

According to a report by the Telusa News in Utah, the Republican presidential candidate Thomas Dewey faced the then U.S. president and Democratic presidential candidate Truman in the 1948 presidential election. At that time, due to the strike of printing workers, the deadline for newspaper printing had to be advanced. The editor-in-chief of “Chicago Tribune” Maloney announced in the newspaper that Dewey had won. In the end, Truman succeeded in a “turnover” between California and Illinois with a gap of less than 1%, achieving re-election.

▲In 1948, Truman took the “Chicago Tribune” newspaper that misjudged Dewey’s victory. Picture from the Associated Press

The same was true in the 1960 election, when Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kennedy competed with Republican presidential candidate Richard Nixon. On the night of election day, CBS and ABC respectively announced Nixon’s victory. In the end, Kennedy defeated Nixon, who won 219 electoral votes with 303 electoral votes, and was elected president.

The 2000 presidential election was even more tortuous. On election day, NBC, CBS, ABC and CNN all predicted that Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore would win Florida. Gore even called the Republican candidate George W. Bush, asking him to admit defeat. However, shortly after the TV station made its prediction, the TV stations withdrew their prediction results because the vote gap was too close, and in the early morning of the next day, they sentenced Florida to Bush Jr. What ensued was a protracted legal battle surrounding Florida’s vote counting. In the end, the Supreme Court decided that Bush Jr. was elected president.


Is the media announcement considered an “official announcement”?

The results announced by the media organizations are based on the analysis of state data. Although from historical data, the results determined by the U.S. media are basically in line with the final results, but there are certain differences from the real “official announcements.”

According to the New York Times, each presidential election consists of two stages: the first is the state vote counting stage, and the second is the electoral college vote counting stage conducted by Congress in January of the following year. The final official election result needs to wait until the states have determined the result of the state’s vote count, and then count the electoral college votes.

According to Reuters, according to federal law, states must resolve ballot disputes and confirm state winners before December 8. According to the electoral college voting system, if this date is exceeded, Congress will no longer accept the state’s voting results.

Subsequently, members of the Electoral College will meet on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, and this year it will be on December 14. The electoral college members voted for the presidential candidate and voted for the vice presidential candidate, winning a majority of 538 electoral votes, that is, 270 or more presidential candidates were elected president. States usually require electors to swear an oath to guarantee that they will vote for candidates from his party.

On January 6, 2021, the Congress will meet at 1 p.m. local time to formally count the electoral votes and announce the winner. If there is a dispute about the electoral college votes in a certain state, it needs to be submitted in writing by the congressman, and the House of Representatives and the Senate will decide on the dispute respectively. Finally, the Vice President, accompanied by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, will formally announce who will be the next President. If no candidate obtains more than 270 electoral votes, it will be decided by the House of Representatives.

In other words, after the media announces the results, the state votes may still be controversial. The real “official announcement” result will have to wait until January 6 next year before the Congress officially announces it. On January 20, the winning presidential candidate and his running partner will be sworn in as President and Vice President at the US Capitol.



After Biden announced his victory

The biggest problem facing Trump is to leave the White House willingly

The vote counting for the US general election has not yet ended, but the result of the general election is clear. While Biden announced his victory, Trump refused to declare defeat and did not congratulate Biden on his election.

What needs to be seen is that behind Biden’s victory is the rapidly changing American sentiment, and even the constantly tearing United States. From Biden’s announcement of victory to the final vote of the Electoral College, Trump’s announcement of defeat to leaving the White House, the United States has entered a very sensitive power transition stage.

In theory, there are still two presidents, one elected president, and another president who is in office and does not admit defeat. Biden vowed to be the president of all Americans, but this election is like an X-ray examination of American people’s sentiments. We can see very clear red-blue opposition and the solidification and drift of election geographic space.

Biden’s victory in the election is difficult and long

Biden’s victory did not come easily. This is something the Democratic Party, mainstream American polling agencies and media did not expect.

The polls before the election showed that Biden was fully ahead. Some people expected to see the “blue frenzy” on the election night after the election, but this did not actually happen. The red and blue camps present a very clear opposition. The Democratic Party has a general confrontation between the Chu River and the Han boundary between the blue positions on the east and west coasts and the central red state.

It is the battlefield states in the Lake District that ultimately determine whether Biden can be elected, such as Wisconsin and Michigan. Prior to this, Trump not only won Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, but the gap between Arizona and Biden has been narrowing. Central America has become the basic Republican party.

Biden trot all the way to the podium: The people gave me a convincing victory

Under such circumstances, even hardcore Democrats will doubt whether the Democratic Party understands the American election or the sentiments of the people. The electoral geography is complex and changeable. How easy is it for Biden to become the president of all Americans?

Because the vote gap is less than one percentage point, Trump’s team of lawyers have requested recounts in many states. In other words, the US election is not only difficult to measure, but also requires multiple measurements. A large part of this is because Trump is an anomaly in American electoral politics. Some polling experts say that there are not enough data on Trump, so it is difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the election.

Voter emotions have profoundly affected this U.S. election

In this general election, we have seen that the theoretical loopholes in the American electoral system have become a reality test. The United States is not directly elected president, but an electoral system. The election battle between Trump and Biden has begun before the vote. Both parties have disputes over voting rules, especially the legality of mail voting and post-election vote counting rules.

Large-scale voting, especially mailed ballots, is also a great pressure on the American election machinery. Behind this is not the maturity of American politics. On the contrary, it is the mood of the voters that makes the turnout rate hit a record high.

In this general election, both sides used their emotions to win more votes for themselves. Trump is a master of emotion control and mobilized Americans’ sense of fear, while the Biden team used the anxiety of the middle class and above. .

During the counting of votes, the competition between the two parties did not stop. The Trump campaign asked to stop counting votes after Election Night, and Biden launched a “count every vote” campaign.

So the focus of this election is on the vote of voters, especially the vote of swing states. But this is actually different from the American electoral system.

The reason why the American constitutionalists designed the electoral system was to prevent the tyranny of the majority or the politics of passion, but this time we saw the influence of passion on American politics, and even formed two diametrically opposed “political worlds” based on emotions.

Biden gave a victory speech and his Twitter certification was renamed “President-elect”, but the election is not over yet. Now it’s just that the vote counting of each state has entered the final stage, and the next step is the voting by the Electoral College.

The problem and challenge Biden faces is that Trump has not announced his defeat, and the game and competition after the election continue. Under normal election conditions, the general election is over after the count of votes in each state. The remaining links are basically procedural and ceremonial.

But this year’s general election is very different. Both procedures and ceremonies have become the focus of fierce competition. How to achieve a smooth transfer of power allows Trump to leave the White House peacefully despite his unwillingness. It is after Biden’s election. The first challenge.

Biden has the desire to set things right and bring American politics back on track, but the America he faces is already very different from the America he is familiar with and expects. Both Trump’s election in 2016 and Biden’s difficult victory show that American people’s sentiments have changed drastically. What Biden urgently needs to do is to recuperate and bridge the divisions of people’s sentiments.

U.S. President Trump discharged from hospital and returns to the White House

The President of the United States who is undergoing the new coronary artery therapy was discharged from the hospital on the evening of the 5th Eastern Time and returned to the White House, but his medical team said that he was not cured.

The live video showed, and he walked out of the gate of Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland through a mask, took a car to the presidential helicopter and boarded the plane. During the entire return journey, he may not speak to reporters.

In the early morning of about 2nd, it was confirmed that he and his wife Melania had contracted the new coronavirus and were sent to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for treatment in the evening of the same day.

Korean media hotly discuss “women’s group live broadcasts are not allowed to cover their legs”

“I just want to show it to others!” Recently, a live video of a South Korean women’s group has caused heated discussion on the Internet. According to the Chosun Ilbo reported on the 17th, during the live broadcast of the South Korean women’s group FANATICS on the 7th of this month, in order to prevent it from being exhausted, two women’s group members just took the jackets handed over by their teammates and put them on their legs. In the background, a man appeared. Reprimanded: “What’s the cover? Show someone the legs, are you stupid?” The female artist looked at her and removed her coat after hearing it (pictured).

South Korea’s “Korea Economy” stated that at the same time that the male worker made a reprimand, there was also a “friction” at the scene, which triggered a debate about whether there was still violence at the live broadcast. This incident immediately triggered condemnation from South Korean netizens, and fans pointed out that the member suspected of being slapped after handing over the jacket was Chinese artist Lian Sijia.
As the incident continues to ferment, FENT Entertainment, the agency of FANATICS, publicly stated its position on the same day: “In response to the wrong statement made by the on-site staff in the live broadcast on the 7th, our company has realized the seriousness and first of all to the members and fans who have been harmed by this. Apology. We will take corresponding measures to the responsible persons. We will pay more attention in the future to prevent similar incidents from happening again.” Some Korean media pointed out that the apology statement of the brokerage company is difficult to “convince the public”, and it is for those who force members to show their legs. No explanation was given as to who it was, and netizens raised questions about violence at the live broadcast.

South Korea’s “Shimbun Today” stated that forcible exposure of young members is already a major problem, not to mention that there are minors among FANATICS members. In fact, women’s group members have no right to choose what clothes to wear. There are countless South Korean women’s groups that are leading sexy, and it is not uncommon to wear short skirts in the cold winter. The concept of “sexy” has been commoditized in women’s groups, and the agency’s mandatory requirement for women’s group members to wear revealing has become an eye-catching “strategy”. It is hoped that taking this controversy as an opportunity, the society will jointly reflect on the issue of sexual commercialization in the entertainment industry and truly strive to achieve self-purification.

President Trump says he and the first lady have ‘tested positive for COVID-19’

President Trump announced on Twitter early Friday morning that he and First Lady Melania Trump have “tested positive for COVID-19.”

“Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!” Trump wrote.

Trump made the announcement about two hours after he said that he and the first lady were “waiting for our test results,” following the news that Hope Hicks, a top White House aide with whom they had recently traveled on Air Force One, had tested positive.

“Hope Hicks, who has been working so hard without even taking a small break, has just tested positive for Covid 19,” Trump wrote. “Terrible! The First Lady and I are waiting for our test results. In the meantime, we will begin our quarantine process!”

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the total number of people in the president’s inner circle and staff who may also have been infected with the disease, which, as of Friday morning, has killed at least 207,789 Americans.

A spokesperson for Vice President Mike Pence did not immediately respond to requests for comment about whether he had been tested for COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.

At 74 years of age, Trump is at increased risk for serious complications from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. His testing positive could also have major implications for the presidential election, which is just 32 days away.

Trump’s doctor, Sean Conley, said in a statement that “the President and the First Lady are both well at this time, and they plan to remain at home within the White House during their convalescence.”

Trump, who trails former Vice President Joe Biden in most national and key swing state polls, had planned numerous campaign events in the coming days. Sickness or a lengthy quarantine could prevent Trump from attending the next scheduled debate with Biden on Oct. 15, or from campaigning in the final stretch.

President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump on stage at the end of the first presidential debate Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020, at Case Western University and Cleveland Clinic, in Cleveland, Ohio. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
President Trump and first lady Melania Trump at the end of the first presidential debate. (AP/Patrick Semansky)

Shortly after Trump’s announcement, the first lady sent out her own tweet.

“As too many Americans have done this year, @potus & I are quarantining at home after testing positive for COVID-19,” she wrote. “We are feeling good & I have postponed all upcoming engagements. Please be sure you are staying safe & we will all get through this together.”

The first lady did not respond to a request for comment.

Only three world leaders are known to have tested positive for COVID-19: Trump, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, all of whom initially underestimated the threat of the virus.

In recorded interviews with journalist Bob Woodward, Trump admitted that he did not want to overplay the threat of COVID-19 to the American people. “I wanted to always play it down,” Trump told Woodward in March. “I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.”

During the pandemic, the president has continued to travel and hold some large events around the country, many in violation of local social distancing regulations. At these events, the president and his staff regularly appear without masks, although supporters are regularly offered face coverings. Trump has also held events at the White House where few masks have been seen. Lax social distancing protocols are the norm, for example at the crowded Sept. 26 ceremony in the Rose Garden, when the president unveiled his nominee to the Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett, before a large crowd.

Hicks, who did not respond to requests for comment, is one of the president’s closest aides and often travels with him. She served as his spokesperson throughout the 2016 campaign, before going on to work in the White House. According to Bloomberg, which was first to report Hicks’s positive COVID test, she experienced symptoms on Wednesday night on the plane returning from Trump’s rally in Duluth, Minn., and subsequently tested positive on Thursday. Hicks also traveled with Trump to the presidential debate in Cleveland on Tuesday.

White House social media director Dan Scavino, left, wears a face mask as he accompanies President Donald Trump, right, aboard Marine One as they depart, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020, at Andrews Air Force Base, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
White House social media director Dan Scavino, left, wears a face mask as he accompanies President Trump, right, aboard Marine One as they depart Thursday. (AP/Alex Brandon)

Although Hicks displayed symptoms on Wednesday evening, Trump flew to his golf club in New Jersey on Thursday and held multiple events. Following Hicks’s diagnosis, Trump had been scheduled to hold a roundtable at his hotel in Washington, D.C., and a rally in Florida on Friday. Shortly after Trump announced his test results, the White House released updated guidance indicating that those events would be canceled.

Trump and his staff reportedly did not wear masks at the debate venue. His opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his aides did wear masks at the event, though Biden appeared without a mask onstage with Trump. The pair did not shake hands and stayed some distance apart, as dictated by protocols put in place by the Cleveland Clinic, which co-hosted the event.

In the wake of the news about Hicks, Biden’s campaign reportedly asked a member of the media who was scheduled to travel with him on Friday not to join the press pool, because the reporter in question had traveled to Minnesota on board Air Force One with Trump and Hicks. The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Trump’s diagnosis.

On the debate stage Tuesday, Trump mocked Biden for wearing a mask.

“Every time you see him, he’s got a mask,” Trump said, as Biden laughed. “He could be speaking 200 feet away from it. And he shows up with the biggest mask I’ve ever seen.”